Lebanon : The calm before the storm.

bloggingbeirut.com - Jonathan Giesen

BEIRUT - For years now, experts and analysts have been speculating on whether or not a major conflict will erupt in Lebanon. Internal tensions have been high for so long between the two major political rivals, that no one can actually remember when was the last times the political scene had no tensions at all.
With Hezbollah currently in a very tricky situation and the International community preparing itself to officially persecute members of the party in the name of the Hariri clan, the future does not look so bright for Cedar Land.
And Yet, both cheikh Saad Hariri, Ex-Pm Rafic Hariri's son and Hezbollah chief sayyed Hassan Nasrallah have promised that there will never be sectarian strife in Lebanon. It is certain that both parties have asked their members not to resort to violence and not to give in to provocation.
Lebanon will certainly be hit with a storm, but no one knows exactly when. This "calm" could last for several months, and even years. After all, everybody was expected the chiite party to make a move in our to divert attention from the situation is Syria. But nothing happened. Yet.
Hezbollah knows the time is not right, and the situation in Syria does not look like it could be resolved within a couple of weeks or so.
One thing is sure, with all the region witnessing change Lebanon won't be unaffected. At some point or another it will suffer the consequences of new politics of the region. Whether the new regimes or "reforms" set up in nearby Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Irak will impact the situation in Lebanon is not a matter of "if", it is just a matter of "When".